Crowd Out Glo

Posted by Luz Rimban 
PCIJ

IT wasn't a quiet weekend at the Palace, as Malacañang went into overdrive bashing the Cabinet secretaries who tendered their resignations yesterday.

Lakas Congressman Prospero Pichay, interviewed on radio, flung accusations of conflict of interest against Customs Commissioner Alberto Lina who Pichay says formed a company called LGC logistics involved in the importation of electronic products for the Cavite-Laguna-Batangas-Rizal (Calabarzon) Area.  

Pichay claims to have confronted Lina a month ago with the matter but according to Pichay, Lina wouldn't let go of a P100-million business.

Pichay also says former Customs Commissioner Guillermo Parayno, until yesterday the chief of the Bureau of Internal Revenue, was also an incorporator in the company.

Presidential Chief of Staff Rigoberto Tiglao, interviewed over GMA-7, also had some things to say about his former colleagues, who he said "chose to grandstand."

Just four days ago, Tiglao said, President Arroyo gave resigned Secretary of Trade Juan Santos the go-signal to pursue an anti-poverty program.  There was also Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima whose proposal for the privatization of PAGCOR was considered by the administration but found impossible to implement without legislation from Congress. Tiglao also chastised resigned National Anti Poverty Commission Chair Imelda Nicolas for leaving the commission high and dry amid all the work that needed to be done.

"Para akong sundalo sa kainitan nang labanan, pagtalikod ko umalis na ang mga kasama ko (I felt like a soldier in the middle of a war who suddenly turned to find myself abandoned by my comrades)," Tiglao said of his resigned former colleagues who were themselves busy giving press conferences and interviews today.

What has happened is that for now, the Palace has shifted the focus of contention and debate from the President to her former Cabinet and sub-Cabinet appointees, which just might give the news media more than enough space to crowd out the President.

Arangkada for July 10, 2005

 

           AFP DISTANSIYA NA

 

       Si Kongresista Roilo Golez, ang labing unang sakop sa administrasyon nga niawhag ni Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sa pag-resign, dunay talagsaong mensahe ngadto sa Armadong Kusog ug sa kapolisan:   Ayaw mo pagpanghilabot sa nagpadayong krisis sa liderato sa nasud.  Ang linya ni Golez sukwahi sa mensahe sa mga lider sa Edsa 1 ug 2 nga bukas nga nidasig sa kasundalohan ug kapolisan sa pagsuporta sa pakigbisog sa katawhan pagpalagpot sa administrasyon.

       Mahimong igo lang nagsunod si Golez sa linya sa US ug sa dagkong mga negosyante nga ang bisan unsang kausaban sa nasudnong liderato kinahanglang ipasubay sa konstitusyon.  O tingali masaligon siya nga mapugos sa oposisyon ug sa civil society groups si Presidente Arroyo pag-resign bisan kon di mosuporta sa ilang kawsa ang kasundalohan ug kapolisan.

-o0o-

       Makahuloganon sab ang pagdeklarar ni AFP Chief Efren Abu, di lang kausa kon dili kaduha gyod, nga magpabilin silang neutral ug nga ang ilang ipatigbabaw mao ang konstitusyon.   Napapas nang nahaunang pasalig ni Abu sa pag-ulbo sa kontrobersiya nga hingpit silang nagsuporta ni Presidente Arroyo.

       Naatol ba lang o tinuyo gyod nga nagkatakdo ang bag-ong postura ni Abu ug ang pasidaan sa US batok sa radikal nga mga paagi pagpalagpot sa administrasyon?  Unsa may implikasyon sa neutrality sa AFP:  Nga di na sila mopagamit sa ilang kasundalohan ug armoured personnel carriers aron paghasi sa mga protesta batok sa administrasyon?

-o0o-

       Gipamatud-an ni PNP Chief Arturo Lomibao nga mas lunod-patay siya para sa presidente.   Wa siya maghisgot og neutrality, hinunoa nilab-as sa iyang hingpit nga suporta para ni Presidente Arroyo.  Ambot bilib ba lang gyod sa presidente o nakumbinser nga ang iyang papel sa niaging eleksiyon, nga nabisto sa kontrobersiyal nga audio recording sa panag-istorya nilang Presidente Arroyo ug kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, maoy garantiya nga bitayon siya sa sunod nga pamunoan.

       Pero ang kapolisan ni Lomibao di na sama kalunod-patay.   Wa na nila babagi ang kaliboan nga nagprotesta sa Makati.  Ang maayong balita para sa Malakanyang mao nga ang mga demonstrador, kasagaran nila gidudahang hinakot ni Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, nagkatibuwaag dihang tingpanihapon na.

-o0o-

       Ang pagtapok ni Presidente Arroyo sa mga politiko sa Malakanyang aron magsige lang gihapon og aleluya niya, nakapahinumdom nako sa kataposang mga adlaw sa diktadura ni kanhi presidente Ferdinand Marcos sa 1986.

       Ang giisip nga kataposang lansang sa politikanhong lungon ni Presidente Arroyo mao ang gikahadlokan sa Malakanyang nga deklarasyon sa Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) pag-awhag sa presidente pagkanaog sa katungdanan.   Ang tingog sa simbahan, kon modason sa awhag nilang kanhi presidente Corazon Aquino ug sa Makati Business Club, gipaabot nga maoy mopabaha sa minilyon ka katawhan sa kadalanan aron mapugos na gyod si Arroyo sa paglayas.   [30]  leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com      

      

Arangkada for July 9, 2005

 

             KINSAY MOPULI?

 

Sa akong pagsuwat ini, klaro nang mga tilimad-on nga mokanaog si Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sa katungdanan. Nitingog na si kanhi presidente Corazon Aquino ug ang Makati Business Club ug ilang gidasonan ang nagkalapad nga awhag para sa iyang resignasyon. Apiki na kaayo siya bisan wa pa katingog ang Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) nga gikahadlokan sa Malakanyang nga moawhag sab niya pagpahawa sa Palasyo.

Ang nakapatakilid gyod sa administrasyon, nga maisugong nihulbot sa ilang kataposang baraha nga mao ang pagsaad og kausaban sa sistema nga nilamoy ug nakapadunot sa tanang mga politiko, mao ang pag-resign sa 10 ka mga sakop sa iyang gabinete—nga bisan minoriya ra pero maoy labing takos ug ligdong nga mga sakop sa iyang opisyal nga pamilya—bisan kon iya silang giminaruan pinaagi sa pag-una pagpangayo sa courtesy resignations sa tanang sakop sa gabinete.

-o0o-

Bisan sa tanang istorya sa iyang kalig-on, kaisog ug determinasyon, labi na nga napamatud-an sa kontrobersiyal nga audio recording sa panag-istorya nilang kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano nga di managana si Presidente Arroyo paglapas sa mga balaod kon maoy gikinahanglan pagpabilin sa gahom, wa ko magtoo nga makalahutay si Presidente Arroyo pagsukol ug pagpapating atubangan sa sibaw nga awhag sa iyang mga kaatbang nga karon gikuyogan na sa iyang mga kanhi dumadapig.

Nahibawo ang presidente nga di siyang kalahutay sa pagpaugat pagpahamtang sa iyang liderato ngadto sa katawhan nga nawad-an nag pagsalig ug pagtahud kaniya. Ang kinatibuk-an niyang kahanas sa politika gamiton sa pagseguro di lang sa iyang graceful exit kon dili, ug labaw na, sa pagpanagang nang daan nga di siya gukdon ug paninglan sa tanan niyang mga atraso sa mosunod nga pamunoan.

-o0o-

Nga mahitabo lang kon, sama sa Edsa 1 sa 1986 ug Edsa 2 sa 2001, kutob ra gihapon ta sa naandang pag-ilis sa mga personalidad. Sakto si Presidente Arroyo nga kinahanglang usbon ang sistema nga nilamoy ug sa ubang mga politiko nga sud na sa daghang katuigan nga nagbanusbanos paghupot sa gahom pero pulos napakyas pagtuman sa ilang gisaad nga kalamboan ug kaluwasan. Pero sayop siya nga kinahanglan siyang ipabilin sa katungdanan aron maoy moduma sa kausaban. Ang pagtangtang niya sa gahom maoy unang lakang nga gikinahanglan aron makasugod nang pag-usab sa dunot nga sistema.

Ang nakasubo kay bisan hapit na manamilit ang administrasyong Arroyo, wa pa magkauyon ang nagkalainlaing sektor kinsay mopuli. Si Bise Presidente Noli de Castro ba nga maoy gasto sa labing dagkong mga negosyante? Transitional government ba nga maoy gusto sa cause oriented groups? Civilian-military junta ba nga giduso ni Heneral Fortunato Abat? O lunsay nga military junta ba nga maoy gipasiatab ni Retired Colonel Billy Bibit ug sa junior officers nga iyang giangkon nga iyang gipangulohan? [30]   leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com

Gloria's Fighting Words

(Text of Pres. Arroyo's Nationwide TV/Radio Address on July 7, 2005)

 

Mga Minamahal kong kababayan.

When I was young and my late father Diosdado Macapagal was president of our country, I thought of him as the "good guy" and his political opponents on the other side were the "bad guys".

Because of my father's influence, I had always thought of myself as on the side of the good. Thus, it is very painful for me to know that among many of our countrymen today, I have been demonized as the "bad guy." This is unfair, but it is a cross that God in His wisdom has given me to bear, so I will bear it. I have never questioned God's ways before, and I will not do so now.

When I first entered politics in 1992, little did I know that within a decade, I would become president of our country. And little did I expect that within another five years, there would be calls from civil society for my resignation from office or for the formation of a "Truth Commission" regarding some of my political actuations.

When I spoke before the nation some two weeks ago, I did so against the advice of my legal counsel. But I thought that speaking before you, the Filipino people, was the right thing to do. Shameless people have peddled the lie that I confessed to cheating. What I disclosed was that I talked to an election official. But that this had taken place after the certificates of canvas had already been used to proclaim the winning senators, and it was those same certificates of canvass that showed that I won by around a million votes. That is the truth.

Indeed, it is right for our country to confront the truth, but if we do so, let's confront the biggest, most painful political truth. The big truth that we are aware of deep in our hearts, but that we collectively sweep under the rug. The big truth whose debilitating effects on our country, year after year, decade after decade, have developed into feelings of disgust, hopelessness and even despair among large segments of our society.

The truth that I discovered from my beginnings as a neophyte politician in 1992, rising to become a veteran politician through the years, is this: over the years, our political system has degenerated to such an extent that it is very difficult to live within the system with hands totally untainted. That is the truth. In addition, our system has degenerated to such an extent that more often than not, it is political agenda first, and national interest last. For example, we have endless investigations and scandals in aid of political and media projection, rather than in aid of legislation or executive action. That is the truth. Because of this system of politics, our country has been left behind by other countries in the region, and our best and brightest, the cream of our youth, are voting with their feet to leave the country. That is the truth.

I do not blame any individual or political block for this sad state of affairs. It is simply the truth that the political system that I am part of has degenerated to the point that it needs fundamental change. We are collectively to blame, so we must collectively be the solution. Let he who is without sin, cast the stone. To those who feel that they cannot cast the first stone, I invite you to help in the solution.

My proposed approach to reform our system of politics and governance is something that I had wanted to bring forth during the upcoming state of the nation address. However, because our country is hungry for a resolution to the political uncertainties that have plagued us these past few weeks, I will bring it up now.

First of all, I am not resigning my office. To do so under circumstances that connote an EDSA 3 would condemn any successor to the possibility of an EDSA 4, then an EDSA 5, and so on, unless our political system were first reformed to make it more responsive to the people's will, such that changes in leadership come about in an orderly and stable manner.

The world embraced EDSA 1 in 1986. The world tolerated EDSA 2 in 2001. The world will not forgive an EDSA 3 in 2005, but would instead condemn the Philippines as a country whose political system is hopelessly unstable. And the Filipinos as among the finest people in the world, but who always shoot themselves in the foot. Under those circumstances, who would invest money in the Philippines? How would we weather the difficulties arising from the price of crude oil being at its highest in history?

What I intend to do is to work with legislators and civil groups who believe that changes in the fundamental law of the land are necessary in order to confront such basic issues as federalism, the character of our legislative process, reducing red tape in government processes, running for public office under a true party system and with less need to raise campaign funds, modernizing the economic provisions of our constitution, and so forth.

At the same time, I will restructure and strengthen the cabinet, giving it a free hand to meanwhile reform and manage our day to day governance with as little political interference as possible, even from me.

This is how we will proceed.

First, I'm asking my entire cabinet to tender their resignation in order to give the executive a free hand to reorganize itself. I'll ask our sectors to give me the names of candidates that we can invite to replace those who will not return to the cabinet, or even to help out at other levels of the executive.

Second, the cabinet will be given a free hand on governance, while I focus on the fundamental changes that we need to put in place.

Third, I will begin to reach out to the political and civil sectors that have an interest in the various advocacies that are relevant to our constitution. Federalism, for example, is an advocacy that I had espoused long ago.

This is neither political ploy nor gimmick. I believe that this process will quickly lay the foundation for deep reforms in our society, including reforms in our political way of life. This would be a legacy that our generation of politicians and citizens could collectively be proud of. I now have grand children to play with and to help bring up. Like all of you, I want our children to grow up in a better Philippines. I have prayed on this, and I hope that I have discerned God's will properly.

Maraming salamat sa inyong lahat.

Arangkada for July 8, 2005

 

                MAS DAKONG ATRASO

 

Duha ka posibleng katin-awan nganong wa mokihol si Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo pagsusi kinsay utok sa pag-wiretap sa cellular phone ni kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano nga iyang gitawgan og labing menos ka-15 ka higayon samtang nagpadayon pang iskutenyo sa eleksiyon niadtong Mayo ug Hunyo sa niaging tuig:

• Mahimong may labot ang presidente sa pag-wiretap ni Garcillano aron pagseguro nga di siya mobalitok sa kampo ni Fernando Poe Jr.; o
• Nahadlok ang presidente nga kon mahibaw-an ang tinuod nga mga sirkumstansiya sa wiretapping, mabisto nga nakahimo diay siya og kalapasan nga mahimong mas grabe pa kay sa pagtikas sa niaging eleksiyon.

-o0o-

Kon toohan ang mga tinubdan sa abogado ni kanhi NBI deputy director Samuel Ong, si Atty. Homobono Adaza, nga na-interview sa DYAB Abante Bisaya, di lang gikan sa Malakanyang kon dili gikan gyod sa pamilya ni Presidente Arroyo ang sugo sa pag-wiretap ni Garcillano:

• Ang naghimo sa aktuwal nga wiretapping mao silang T/Sgt. Vidal Doble ug laing upat ka operatiba sa Intelligence Services of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP);
• Ang nagsugo nilang Doble mao ang hepe sa ISAFP atol sa eleksiyon nga si Rear Admiral Tirso Danga;
• Ang nagsugo ni Danga mao ang usa ka sakop sa gabinete ni Presidente Arroyo; ug
• Ang nagsugo sa sakop sa gabinete mao ang usa ka sakop sa pamilya ni Presidente Arroyo.

-o0o-

Kon tinuod nga ang pamilya mismo sa presidente maoy nagsugo sa wiretapping, mosamot siya og kaapiki. Kay suma sa gibalikbalik sa mga magbabalaod nga sipsip sa iyang administrasyon, ang pagpaminaw ug pag-record sa mga panag-istorya sa telepono nga way pagtugot sa korte ni pananghid sa mga nag-istorya klarong kalapasan sa Republic Act 4200.

Ang kadunot na sa kadungganan ni Garcillano mahimong makaiban og dyutay sa krimen. Pero ang wiretapping makapatumaw sa mas seryusong pangutana: Kon giunay pag-wiretap sa Malakanyang ang ilang alyado, unsa may garantiya nga wa sila mohimo og mas grabeng kalapasan sa balaod aron pagpangespiya sa ilang mga kaatbang sa politika o karibal nga mga negosyante?

-o0o-

Mao diay nga bisan mas importante ang nasudnong seguridad kay sa iyang personal nga mga interes, nipili si Presidente Arroyo pagtak-om labot sa wiretapping. Pero hangtod kanus-a siyang magtago sa kangitngit? Hangtod kanus-a niya malipat ang katawhan gikan sa kamatuoran?

Karong inanay nang nitakdo ang aktuwal nga mga panghitabo sa mga kasayuran nga nahisgutan sa tulo ka oras nga audio recording, makasugakod pa ba ang presidente sa pagpanalipod sa iyang kaugalingon inig sulpot na sa dugang mga ebidensiya nga wa siya mohunong sa pagmaniobra lang sa eleksiyon aron pagsegurong magpabilin sa gahom nga nakapabuhong pag-ayo sa iyang bana, anak, bayaw ug ubang mga suod? [30]  leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com

Sleepless in RP

Commentary: Arroyo's troubles leave investors sleepless in Manila

By Andy Mukherjee Bloomberg News

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo of the Philippines has explained how she beats the stress of what must be Asia's most embattled political job: by praying and then going to sleep.

 

"When I'm in my room, I lie down and I pray a lot, then I fall asleep," the 58-year-old leader is quoted as saying in Time magazine's July 4 Asian edition. "I do that all the time," said Arroyo, "usually at 3.30 p.m., after Mass."

 

Unlike the president, investors in the Philippines are a sleepless lot these days, though they too are saying their own prayer, and it's for Arroyo's political survival.

 

Arroyo, whose family members are being investigated by the antigraft prosecutor on charges that they had received payoffs from illegal gambling operators, this week apologized for talking on the phone to an election commissioner during the presidential vote count.

 

The opposition claims the taped conversation proves Arroyo cheated in the May 2004 poll to defeat her opponents, including the popular action-movie hero Fernando Poe Jr., who died late last year without conceding defeat.

 

While acknowledging a "lapse in judgment" in her June 27 television broadcast, Arroyo denied that her action had influenced the election's outcome. The difference between what Arroyo is accused of and what she has admitted to holds the key to investors' decisions on whether to stay in the Philippines.

 

The audio recording of the conversation, multiple versions of which are in circulation, does not prove the opposition's case that Arroyo tried to influence the vote, Standard & Poor's said Tuesday in a statement.

 

While the wiretap scandal has spooked investors and provided fodder for Internet chat rooms, it hasn't worked very well on the streets. The "e-power" of the recording that is being traded on the Internet has failed to match the zeal of the "People Power" movement, which toppled President Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.

 

Nor did anti-Arroyo demonstrations this month produce anywhere near the level of excitement of January 2001 when President Joseph Estrada was under popular pressure to resign following allegations of corruption.

 

In the absence of proof that she cheated to keep the top job until 2010, Filipino voters may be willing to "close this chapter" as Arroyo has urged them.

 

Investors, too, would be glad if the scandal just went away. That would allow them to focus on recent improvements in the debt-ridden country's chronic budget deficit.

 

The government posted a budget surplus of 3.3 billion pesos, or $59 million, in April, marking the first time in four years that revenue exceeded spending. Fiscal correction will gather speed as a value-added tax, or VAT, is introduced next year. VAT will improve the country's junk-bond debt rating and help push up bond prices.

 

"Unless real evidence of vote manipulation on a broad scale emerges in the coming weeks," Scott Wilson, executive director of investment research at UBS in Singapore, wrote in a note, "Arroyo's congressional support is likely to remain firm."

 

Wilson is maintaining his "buy" rating on Philippine bonds.

 

In the first five months of this year, tax collections were a fifth of a percentage point higher at 5.2 percent of gross domestic product, the first increase in eight years, according to UBS.

 

Fitch Ratings last month changed its outlook on Philippine debt to stable from negative, citing "significant fiscal measures," for which credit must go to Arroyo, who countered political opposition to push a law that will increase the value-added tax rate to 12 percent from 10 percent starting January 2006.

 

The increased rate, along with fewer VAT exemptions, is expected to lift revenue in 2006 by about 104 billion pesos.

 

Arroyo's administration also won praise last week from the International Monetary Fund, which hailed it for its "courageous campaign" against tax evaders.

 

Standard & Poor's said Tuesday that Arroyo's apology was unlikely to affect the country's foreign-currency rating of BB-, three levels below investment grade.

 

"Over the long term, however, the possibility of a president weakened by diminished public support and an obstructive legislature could heighten political instability," said an S&P analyst, Agost Benard. "That might further impede the administration's efforts to put public finances on an even keel."

 

Public debt exceeds the Philippines' gross domestic product of $85 billion.

 

A weak Arroyo would be more acceptable to investors than the chaos that might occur if she were ousted.

 

If Arroyo is impeached or forced to quit, Vice President Noli de Castro will replace her, pending new elections.

 

The vice president enjoys mass appeal, though "he has limited support from the business community and the elite," Credit Suisse First Boston's regional economist, Sailesh Jha, wrote in a research note last week.

 

Investor sentiment is crucial for the Philippines to stem the decline in the peso, which has fallen 2.4 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past month, more than any other Asian currency.

 

A weak currency increases the cost of debt payment - the government's net overseas borrowings equal 48 percent of the country's annual current account receipts.

 

With so much riding on Arroyo's ability to survive the political crisis and stay focused on the economy, investors hope the president is alert - and awake.

Arangkada for July 7, 2005

 

             BOMBA SA TIME

 

Kay wa man mopakitag interes si Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo ug ang Malakanyang pag-ila kinsay nag-wiretap sa ilang panagsulti ni kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, bisan upat na ka semana human niulbo ang kontrobersiya, ug kay di man sab interesado ang Kongreso gawas ni Senador Rodolfo Biazon, ug kay otro man sang nilingiw ang media gawas sa Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) ug Newsbreak, dakong baligho nga ang Time, ang labing dakong magasin sa Estados Unidos, maoy nakauna pag-detalye sa ruta sa tulo ka oras nga audio recording sa wa pa mapabati ngadto sa publiko.

Ang artikulo sa Time sinuwat nilang Anthony Spaeth sa Washington ug Nelly Sindayen sa Manila maoy labing unang detalyadong asoy sa "Gloriagate" nga nabasahan sa Amerikanhong mga opisyal ug katawhan. Naglakip ni sa pagsuway sa Malakanyang pag-cover-up sa eskandalo pinaagi sa pagpresentar og pekeng bersiyon uban ni Edgar Ruado, ang chief of staff ni Kongresista Iggy Arroyo, bayaw sa presidente, nga niinsistir nga siya si "Gary" nga maoy ka-istorya sa presidente.

-o0o-

Niang di na kaayo bag-o dinhi sa Pilipinas pero eksplosibo pa gihapong kasayuran gikan sa Time, labi na atubangan sa determinadong paningkamot ni Presidente Arroyo pagkuha sa padayong suporta ni US President George Bush:

• Si T/Sgt. Vidal Doble sa Intelligence Services of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP) maoy ni-wiretap sa cellular phone ni Garcillano sa mga buwan sa Mayo ug Hunyo sa niaging tuig isip kabahin sa iyang normal nga trabaho;
• Gihatag ni Doble ang orihinal nga kopya sa recording ngadto sa drayber ug bodyguard ni Atty. Samuel Ong, kanhi deputy director sa National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), Mayo karong tuiga;
• Nakadawat og duha ka audiotapes gikan sa wa niya mailhing tinubdan pinaagi sa koreyo niadto gihapong Mayo si kanhi senador Francisco Tatad;
• Niadtong Mayo 15, gisumiter ni Tatad ang audiotapes ngadto sa iyang abogadong si Allan Paguia kinsa iya sang gipangayoan og tambag unsaon pagamit ang recording; ug
• Si Paguia mao nay naghimo og 32 minutos nga CD version nga wa na maglakip sa iyang gihulagway nga pribadong mga istorya sa pribadong mga indibiduwal.

-o0o-

Nipadayag og pagduda ang Time sa motibo ni Doble paghatag sa orihinal nga kopya sa recording ngadto ni Ong. Tinuod ba siyang gibayran sa oposisyon? Dunay mas klarong tubag ang artikulo sa Newsbreak: Gibisto sa kadagkoan sa ISAFP ang recording human laslasi ni AFP Chief Efren Abu ang dagkong gahom sa ahensiya.

Laing mga pangutana: Diin man gikan ang kopya ni Senador Panfilo Lacson nga iyang gipada para sa authentication sa eksperto sa Asutralia? Naatol ba lang nga si Doble sakop ni Lacson niadto sa Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Task Force (PAOCTF)? [30]   leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com

Tatad Is Tape's Source

Tale of The Tape
He Said, She Said
BY ANTHONY SPAETH AND NELLY SINDAYEN/MANILA

At the center of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's woes is a widely circulated tape of purported telephone conversations between a woman and an election officer identified by ex-colleagues as Virgilio Garcillano. Here's why the recording is proving so troublesome for Arroyo:

What does the tape say?
It contains more than a dozen conversations between a man referred to as "Garci" and several callers, including a voice that sounds like Arroyo's. The most damaging excerpt is this:

Female voice: "So will I still lead by 1M [sic]?"
Garci: "More or less it's that advantage, ma'am."
Female voice: "It cannot be less than 1M?"
Garci: "I will force it."

What is the implication?
The "1M" may refer to 1 million votes—which is about the margin by which Arroyo won the May 2004 presidential election. In her apology to the nation last week, she admitted to a "lapse in judgment" for phoning an official of the Commission on Elections. She said she did so to ensure her lead would not be eroded by her opponents cheating. Arroyo's critics say that by contacting an election official during the counting, she abused her power. Arroyo neither mentioned the tape nor said the female voice was hers, and did not name the election official she talked to.

Why not?
That might have hoisted Arroyo on her own petard. On June 6, the presidential palace released two tapes: the Garci tape that is circulating, and another tape recording of the President speaking to someone called Gary, with similar dialogue. The palace said the Garci tape was doctored to make Arroyo look bad, and that the Gary tape is the genuine recording. A few days later, an Arroyo loyalist in the central Philippines, Edgar Ruado, chief of staff of Mrs. Arroyo's Congressman brother-in-law Ignacio Arroyo, came forward to say he was Gary. If Arroyo's voice was indeed the one on the Garci tape, and she had acknowledged so, she would have tacitly admitted that the Gary tape was a lie—implying a presidential palace cover-up.

How did the Garci tape become public?
Francisco Tatad, a former Senator in the opposition camp, says he received two audiotapes from an anonymous source in the mail in May. He gave them to a lawyer, Alan Paguia, asking for legal advice on the conversations. Paguia, who worked in 2003 as an attorney for Arroyo's predecessor Joseph Estrada, made a 32-minute condensed version. When the palace released its copy of the conversations (the Gary tape), Paguia started distributing the other version on CD. The lawyer says he wasn't working on behalf of Estrada, but had his own reasons for spreading the CDs: in November 2003 the Supreme Court had suspended Paguia's right to practice law for his repeated criticism of its approval of Arroyo's taking over the presidency from Estrada.

Who recorded the phone conversations in the first place?
Technical Sergeant Vidal Doble has admitted to taping the phone calls as part of his duties at the Intelligence Services of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Doble says he gave the original tapes to the driver and bodyguard of Samuel Ong, a former deputy chief of the National Bureau of Investigation. Why he did so—whether he was paid by the opposition, as has been alleged by Arroyo's aides—is unclear. Ong is in hiding; the original tapes, according to his attorney, are with a trusted friend. Election officer Garcillano has also disappeared and is rumored to have left the country.

The Wiretapped Voices

Posted by Sheila Coronel 
PCIJ

AS I write this, the House of Representatives is playing the three-hour tape submitted by former Estrada lawyer Alan Paguia. Contrary to speculations, opposition senators have nothing to worry about. There is nothing in those tapes that implicates them. They are home free — for now. The same, however, cannot be said for some oppositionists running for local posts in Mindanao.

Today the Commission on Elections chairman, Benjamin Abalos, confirmed that during the elections, he got calls from three opposition senatorial candidates — Juan Ponce Enrile, Jamby Madrigal and Jinggoy Estrada. Enrile, who was reelected senator in 2004, admitted that he did speak to the Comelec chair, but only to make sure that his votes were properly counted. Madrigal and Estrada are so far silent.

So far, there have been no apologies for the impropriety of those calls, or of "lapses in judgment." Maybe the intent was to show, as Rep. Pichay has been repeating over and over the last few days,  that the President's phone calls to Garcillano were not unusual in our political culture.

But back to The Tape. The one that is playing in the House at the moment is also the same one released by former NBI Director Samuel Ong, and which you can download for free from this site (no need to go through a congressional hearing).

We have identified, with the help of four Comelec personnel and other sources, about two dozen voices on those tapes, and none of them belongs to an opposition senator.

Apart from the president, the First Gentleman and Garcillano himself, the voices we have identified include those of six candidates who ran in 2004, 11 Comelec officials, three political party lawyers and supporters, as well as Garcillano's wife Grace and secretary Ellen Peralta.

In addition, intelligence sources identified for us three of the five ISAFP agents who annotated the tape — that is, these agents, who were most likely the ones also tapping Garcilliano introduced each of the calls by identifying who was in them and the time and date it took place.

We will reveal the identities of all these people later this week, when the special edition of our i Report hits the streets. But for now, the opposition senatorial candidates can rest easy. None of them are included in whatever version of the "Hello Garci" tape. What should give them reason to worry is if Garcillano makes a comeback.

After all, in a June 7 interview with reporters, the Comelec commissioner looked very confident. At that point,  he didn't seem worried about any possible investigation of the wiretaps. He wasn't worried about the opposition, either. He said:  "I helped many of them, I have many friends among them."

That was a month ago,  when the only versions of the conversations that had been made public were those released by Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye. Garcillano didn't yet know that the three-hour recording existed. A few days later, he dropped out of sight.

To help the congressmen make sense of the recording, here is a list of the candidates we identified as having called Garcillano from May 17 to June 18, 2004.

• Robert Barbers
  Former senator; K4 senatorial candidate May 2004
  (Spoke to Garcillano on May 24 17:37; May 25 15:19; May 26 09:11; after May 26 19:50; May 29 15:16; June 3 13:35, 13:37, 13:39, 19:03; June 4 12:05; June 8 12:33; June 14 10:32; referred to in other Garci calls on May 24 16:00; May 25 11:45; June 1, 14:12, 15:07; June 2 10:23, 11:56; June 6 12:03; June 8 12:02, 14:33, 15:33; June 20, 12:08)

• Suharto "Teng" Mangudadatu
  Rep., lone district, Sultan Kudarat, elected May 2004; believed to be closely associated with First Gentleman Mike Arroyo
  (Spoke to Garcillano on June 4 08:32; June 20 12:08 and was referred to in conversations on May 29 09:47; June 6 12:03; June 16 12:57)

• Abdullah Dimaporo
  Rep., Lanao del Norte, re-elected May 2004
  (Spoke to Garcillano on June 8 17:28; June 9 06:39)

• Gerardo Espina Sr.
  Former representative, lone district Biliran; municipal mayor, Naval, elected May 2004
  (Spoke to Garcillano on June 9 13:30)

• Juhary Abinal Galo
  Mayoralty candidate, Lumba-Bayabao, Lanao del Sur
  (Spoke to Garcillano on June 2 21:45)

• Abdusakur Tan
  Former governor, Sulu; KNP gubernatorial candidate, May 2004
  (Spoke to Garcillano on June 8 12:14, 15:56)

Garci: A Tarnished Man

Poll official at heart of tape crisis has tarnished image 
By Agence France-Presse

VIRGILIO Garcillano, the man accused of stealing the 2004 election for Philippine President Gloria Arroyo, has faced allegations in the past of ballot-box skullduggery. The 68 year-old former Commission on Elections (Comelec) official is widely suspected of being one of the voices in a taped telephone conversation which allegedly shows Arroyo conniving with him to fix the May 2004 vote. The first part of the conversation, with a voice sounding like Arroyo's, saying "Hello, Garci?", has become an object of derision --widely used in rap tunes and mobile phone ringtones. But at the House of Representatives, which is investigating the alleged cheating, the three-hour tapes are serious stuff and are being used to bolster opposition calls for Arroyo to be unseated. "It's like undergoing a seminar for electoral fraud," said legislator Roilo Golez, the president's former national security adviser who broke away from his ex-boss last week over the controversy. Garcillano, who has withdrawn from the public eye since the scandal broke in June, was quoted in an interview with the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper on Wednesday as saying that "many of those conversations ([on the tape] are doctored." Portrayed in the tapes as a polyglot who fielded calls in the main dialects of Cebuano, Tagalog and Ilocano, Garcillano categorically denied that he promised Arroyo a one-million-vote victory margin and said he would confront his accusers at the proper time. He has maintained there is nothing improper in a candidate speaking to a commissioner of the independent Comelec before the vote count is finished, adding that he spoke with other opposition and administration candidates before the votes were tallied. Other Comelec officials and candidates have since come forward, admitting that they had conversations about the elections before the count was finished. But all of them state that they did nothing improper. Garcillano however has a poor reputation as an election official that hurts his credibility, especially with the Congress. A lawyer and reserve military officer, Garcillano joined the election commission as a special attorney soon after passing the bar in 1960. He was stationed for much of his time in the southern island of Mindanao, a volatile place where political warlords use feudal loyalties, patronage, and private armies to win votes during elections. As he moved up the ranks of Comelec, Garcillano was hit by accusations of involvement of election cheating although few of the accusers went public. The most prominent case came in 1995 when then-senatorial candidate Aquilino Pimentel accused Garcillano of using his position as regional elections director in Mindanao to help switch votes from Pimentel to another candidate. Garcillano was never found guilty but Pimentel never forgot and is one of those leading the effort to unseat Arroyo. Despite Garcillano's checkered history, Arroyo in March 2004 appointed him one of the Comelec commissioners, a sensitive position that includes the independent supervision of voting and tallying during national polls. Congress, which must confirm the appointment of Comelec officials, bypassed Garcillano's appointment seven times -- effectively showing its disapproval. But Arroyo re-appointed him each time, bolstering speculation that the two enjoy a special relationship.

Garci Speaks Out

Garcillano: Yes, I talked with Arroyo
By Michael Lim Ubac
Inquirer News Service

AFTER more than two weeks in hiding, Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano broke his silence on the wiretapping controversy last night and denied in an exclusive telephone interview with the Inquirer that he conspired with President Macapagal-Arroyo to rig last year's balloting. Garcillano also said he talked to a number of candidates in the last election. They include vice presidential candidate Loren Legarda, then senatorial candidate Mar Roxas, Minority Leader Francis Escudero on behalf of his father Salvador, an opposition senatorial candidate who lost in the election. Before the election, Garcillano said, he also talked to then senatorial candidate Jamby Madrigal. No favors Garcillano said they did not ask favors from him and simply voiced their concern about possible fraud. "Tell the people that the conversations that have publicly come out of the tapes are untrue," said Garcillano, speaking from an undisclosed place in Mindanao. "Many of those conversations were doctored," he said. Garcillano specifically referred to a portion in the conversations in tapes released by the opposition purportedly showing that he was assuring Ms Arroyo of a one-million vote margin. "I did not say that, I categorically deny that," Garcillano said in his telephone call made as a House investigative panel was playing one version of the tape submitted by Alan Paguia, former counsel of deposed president Joseph Estrada. He said he had been reluctant to come out, pointing out that with the flood of speculation sweeping the country he had lost credibility before the public. "The people are biased. I never did anything to destroy the electoral process. I am not that stupid," he said. He said at the proper time he was willing to come out and confront his accusers.

Arangkada for July 6, 2005

 

           BABAYE NI GARCI?

 

Kon nakalahutay kag paminaw sa tulo ka oras nga tape recording sa pakig-istorya ni kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano uban nilang Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, kanhi senador Robert Barbers, Kongresista Gerry Espina ug ubang personalidad, nakaseguro kong imong nabantayan ang daghan niyang ngan ngadto sa mga nanawag niya gikan sa Mayo 17 hangtod sa Hunyo 18, 2004:

• Garci siya parang Presidente Arroyo sa kataposang duha sa 15 nila ka panagsulti;
• 'Di (Daddy) siya para sa iyang asawang si Grace;
• Sir ug Kuya siya para sa babayeng nangayog load sa cell phone ug gikasabot niyang ikaabot;
• Pare ug Padre siya parang Mike Arroyo;
• Gil, 'Dong, Tito ug 'Kol para sa iyang mga paryente; ug
• Comm, Tatay, Manong ug Boss sa iyang mga sakop.

-o0o-

Ang recording nagpintal sab sa papel sa asawa ni Garcillano sa iyang trabaho ug personal nga kinabuhi:

• Si Grace nitabang paghikay sa duha ka transaksyon pinaagi sa pagpaila sa mga kandidato ngadto sa iyang bana;
• Si Grace nibuyag niya sa di pag-inom kay udto pa ug niapura niya pagbalik sa upisina aron di matental sa inom (wa siyay kasayuran nga niadtong higayona may gikasabot si Garcillano nga batan-ong babaye nga iyang ikaabot sa alas-2 sa hapon);
• Si Grace gilibak sa iyang bana nga "puti og buhok" dayong balibad sa batan-ong babaye nga makigkita unta niya;
• Si Grace nagsusi unsay gilutong sud-an para sa iyang bana (gisultihan siya sa usa ka Len nga "ulang");
• Si Grace nakigdungan niyag simba aron di magbalikbalik ang ilang sakyanan;
• Si Grace nabalakang di matudlo pagbalik ang iyang bana sa Comelec samtang nakigsabot sa iyang amiga nga mag-abot sila sa Sugbo para sa ilang biyahe sa gawas sa nasud; ug
• Si Grace ganahang mag-shopping sa Greenhills.

-o0o-

Ang kataposang istorya ni Garcillano sa recording nahimo sa alas-6:08 ug alas-8:07 sa buntag niadtong Hunyo 18 uban ni "Boy" nga giila sa Newsbreak nga si Acting Regional Director Renato Magbutay sa ARMM (kinsa nadestino sab sa Sugbo pila ka tuig ang nilabay). Sa unang istorya, gisugo niya si Boy pag-text sa presidente kinsa iyang giingong nakadawat og text nga way ngan sa niaging gabii. Wa matiwas ang istorya kay naputol ang linya.

Sa ikaduha nilang istorya, gihatagan niya si Boy sa numero sa presidente (0917-8547146) ug niawhag nga, "Please assure her that we never forsake her…" Nagkatawa siyang nipuno, "Ay na tog usba ang imong sulti nga kon di ko ma-renew, duna tay 25 ka election officers nga star witnesses."

Way usa ka buwan human niadto, si Garcillano gitudlo pagbalik ni Presidente Arroyo sa Comelec. Na-blackmail bang Garcillano ang presidente? [30]  leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com

Newsbreak's Take on Garci Tapes

The Shoe Fits I
By Aries Rufo
Newsbreak Senior Writer

Like a jigsaw puzzle, the contents of the alleged cell phone conversations between Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano and various personalities led by President Arroyo fit squarely with events that followed the May 10 polls in 2004. If proven true, they could unmask the cabal of operators who tampered with votes upon orders of Garcillano.

Going by the tape's transcript of the alleged conversations, which supposedly took place from May 17 to June 18, 2004, NEWSBREAK research shows that this jibes with official documents from the Commission on Elections (Comelec), actual events reported in newspapers, as well as previous election stories that this magazine has published.

We spent time with several Comelec officials and employees, who listened to the CD of the alleged conversations and helped NEWSBREAK identify the people whom Garcillano reportedly talked with on the phone and provided the context to the alleged conversations.

One Comelec document obtained by NEWSBREAK proves that it was Garcillano who was running the show in Mindanao even before the elections. A few days before May 10, Garcillano caused the reshuffle of election officers in Mindanao and put his own men in key areas in the region. The reshuffle angered Comelec personnel—given how close it was to election day already. But they could not do anything about it. After all, Garcillano had been appointed vice chair for personnel of the poll body (the chair was Comelec chairperson Benjamin Abalos).

Thus, Abalos was not being honest when he insisted, after the tape scandal broke, that Garcillano had nothing to do with Mindanao during the elections because the latter was Comelec officer in charge (CIC) of another area—Regions 4 and 5.

Awesome Powers

In our story published on May 24, 2004, we cited the concern raised by a poll commissioner about Garcillano's powers as vice chair for personnel. The source, an appointee of ousted President Joseph Estrada, had said then that Garcillano had tried to reassign personnel in the region where the official was already CIC. Normally, the reshuffle is the responsibility of the CIC for that region. The official said he turned down Garcillano.

But in Mindanao where Abalos and Commissioner Manuel Barcelona (both appointees of President Arroyo) were CIC, Garcillano was given a free hand to move personnel. A month before the May elections, for example, the Comelec regional directors in four Mindanao provinces were sighted in Manila. Some of these officials met with Garcillano even during the canvassing, if the intercepted phone calls are to be believed.

Before we went to press, President Arroyo confirmed that it was her voice on the tape, but claimed that she was only monitoring her votes, and not directing "a Comelec official" to cheat. Garcillano issued a flat denial before he went into hiding. He has not been seen by the media; his wife has been serving as his spokesperson.

But this is what we have determined so far:

• On the tape, two men spoke on May 24, 2004, about four remaining provinces that had yet to submit election results. One of them, a certain "chairman," told the other party that the other side had already received 475,000 votes against the 175,000 votes that "we got." A Comelec senatorial canvass report showed that indeed on that date, the provinces of Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, Sarangani, and Cotabato City had yet to submit their respective certificate of canvasses (COC). The COCs from Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte, however, were received in the afternoon of that same day, while Sarangani's was received on May 25.

• On May 25, two men, one of them believed to be Garcillano, purportedly talked about the possibility that then senatorial bet Robert Barbers would lead by 70,000 or 80,000 in one area. Barbers, one of them said, was asking for "developments." Based on the Comelec's May 24 senatorial canvass report, Sen. Rodolfo Biazon—who ran neck and neck with Barbers for the last senatorial slot—was already leading him by 87,685 votes.

• Meanwhile, another caller, said to be First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, also reportedly asked Garcillano whether all provincial results had been accounted for. To this, the man believed to be Garcillano said there were still seven towns in Lanao del Sur that were not included in the province's COC, as well as Cotabato.

• Comelec records indeed show that seven towns and Cotabato City were delayed for canvassing because of electoral protests.

• At around 8 p.m. of that same day, Garcillano reportedly got a call from a certain Danny, who was asking for an update on Cotabato City. In the tape, Garcillano was said to have assured "Danny" that Barbers would win in the remaining municipalities of Lanao del Sur because "Lou Macarambon was there..." Garcillano also told "Danny" that "as of this moment, we need 40 plus for him to overtake. As of this afternoon, 29." Apparently, they were discussing the numbers by the thousands. This conversation jibed with the Comelec's official result on May 25, which showed Biazon leading Barbers by 27,622 votes.

• On May 26, at 11:25 a.m., Garcillano got a call from a woman who sounded like President Arroyo, asking whether the senatorial canvassing could be delayed "until after the voting on the rules tonight." The female caller expressed her concern about the tension between her two allies, presumably Barbers and Biazon, who had accused each other of cheating. Newspaper reports showed that the senatorial canvass was indeed suspended that day. The reason given was that the Comelec was still awaiting the results from Cotabato City and 200 precincts in Lanao del Sur.

• Meanwhile, also on May 26, a man believed to be Garcillano received a call from someone informing the commissioner that a resolution on the proclamation of Grace Padaca as Isabela governor had been released. Garcillano sounded surprised, saying he knew nothing about the resolution. A newspaper report dated May 27 said that Election Commissioners Resurreccion Borra and Mehol Sadain had already signed the May 26 resolution lifting the temporary restraining order on Padaca's proclamation. Succeeding events, however, showed that the resolution was sent to the backburner; Padaca's rival, Gov. Faustino Dy Jr., managed to delay her proclamation.

• On May 29, a man believed to be Garcillano again got a call from one who sounded like Barbers, who wanted to know if the canvassing in Cotabato would be transferred to Manila. Garcillano reportedly told Barbers that he had no idea about this since his point man in the area, "Atty. Lintang Bedol," who sat as chair of Cotabato City board of canvassers, could not be contacted. But a few minutes after the call, Garcillano was able to contact Bedol, who confirmed the order. A May 31 story in the Philippine Star quoted Bedol as saying that the Comelec en banc had ordered the transfer of the canvassing to Manila. The report said the transfer was prompted by a petition of opposition candidate Estrellita "Neng" Juliano.

• On June 1, at 9:43 p.m, a woman who sounded like the President called up again the man believed to be Garcillano, asking why the ballot box from Camarines Norte was found empty in Congress. Garcillano said he would verify this with the officer-in-charge there, Liza Cariño, a Comelec director. This empty ballot box incident was duly reported in the media.

• On June 2, Garcillano reportedly got a call from Mr. Arroyo, who was asking him to help Barbers. Garcillano was said to have claimed that the situation appeared hopeless. "Oo nga, pero mahihirapan na tayo. Medyo nabuko tayo sa Lanao del Sur at hindi na makakahabol dito sa Cotabato (Yes, but it'll be very difficult for us to pull this off. We were already found out in Lanao del Sur, and we can't catch up in Cotabato)." (A man who sounded like Mr. Arroyo would call again an hour later seeking a last-minute delay in the canvassing and proclamation). A check with Biazon's office showed that on that day, Wilfredo Asis had disclosed in an en banc hearing that COCs from Lanao del Sur had been tampered with, apparently to favor Barbers. Showing a photocopy of the COC, Asis said Barbers got 34,702 votes while Biazon received only 1,437 votes in the tampered document. An aide of Biazon who attended the hearing told NEWSBREAK that Abalos fumed at that point, and ordered the immediate proclamation of Biazon. That same day, Biazon was proclaimed the 12th senator, with the Cotabato results fending off Barbers's late charge. Biazon got 13,836 in Cotabato over Barbers's 9,614 votes.

• Also on June 2, a man believed to be Garcillano again got a call from one who sounded like the President, asking him about opposition allegations that the statements of votes (SOV) in Basilan and Lanao del Sur did not match the COC. Newspaper reports showed that on the same day, opposition lawyer Rufus Rodriguez held a press conference showing alleged retail vote shaving against then presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. in Basilan, Lanao del Sur, and other provinces.

Missing Election Officer

Then on June 3, the First Gentleman reportedly rang up Garcillano to tell him that nobody was watching the canvassing in Basilan. Garcillano explained that a petition to stop the canvassing had been filed in the province. Before the line was cut, Mr. Arroyo reportedly asked Garcillano, "Puwede ikarga mo naman yung 70,000 (Could you load the 70,000)?"

True enough, losing Basilan gubernatorial bet Jim Hataman filed a petition to annul the canvassing. In the congressional canvass later, Arroyo got 78,429 in the province against Poe's 59,892.

On June 5, 2004, Garcillano received a frantic call from a certain Boy, who told him that Rashma could not be located and that she could be in Manila. "Nasa Maynila? Naku delikado.Hindi ba natin makontak? (In Manila? That's dangerous. Can't we get in touch with her?)" Garcillano replied. (Rashma is said to be Hadja Rashma Hali, an election officer in Tipo-Tipo, Basilan).

"Boy" said Rashma could not be contacted on her mobile phone although he had already asked the help of a member of the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces (ISAFP) in locating her. A Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism blog identified the ISAFP officer to be Col. Aminkadra Salahuddin Undug, who was based in ISAFP's Military Intelligence Group 9 in Zamboanga City.

By that time, Hali was already in Manila and in the custody of Poe's camp. Poe's lawyer, Harriet Demetriou, recalled that opposition lawyer Demaree Raval had asked her sometime in the first week of June if she could meet Hali and take her affidavit.

On June 4, Demetriou said that she accompanied Hali to Makati City prosecutor Edgardo Hirang to give her statement. In her affidavit, Hali disclosed attempts to tamper with the election results in Tipo-Tipo to favor Arroyo.

On June 7, a woman who sounded like the President called up Garcillano to follow up on Hali as she expressed concern that she might be already in opposition hands. Garcillano said he would ask Hali's family to help.

Demetriou said she later learned that some ISAFP and police personnel went to Hali's family in Zamboanga city. The visit, she believes, forced Hali to recant her statement. (Demetriou, along with Rodriguez, were later charged with kidnapping by the police. Demetriou said the charge was dropped after she told the police that she had a video showing that Hali voluntarily gave her statement.)

On June 8, Rodriguez presented Hali to the press, and transcripts of the wiretapped conversation showed this was the topic of conversation between Garcillano and an unidentified man. Garcillano assured the man there was nothing to worry about Hali because her testimony would not affect President Arroyo.

Pressing for Barbers

Also on June 8, at 2:33 p.m., a man believed to be Garcillano again got a call from one who sounded like the First Gentleman, asking him to help Barbers in the latter's petition stopping Biazon's proclamation. Garcillano assured Mr. Arroyo he would do his best because "Siya naman talaga ang atin eh (he's really our man)." An hour after that call, Barbers' petition was still the subject matter of an alleged conversation between Garcillano and an unidentified man. The latter said he had read portions of Barbers' petition, which cited towns whose election results had yet to be canvassed.

A check with the Comelec clerk in office showed that Barbers's petition was received on June 7 at 7:20 p.m. (docketed as SPC case No. 04-258), a day before the alleged conversations took place. The places mentioned by the unidentified man to Garcillano tallied with those cited in Barbers' petition.

Finally, Garcillano was caught on tape in a lengthy conversation with a certain "Tony" (believed to be Antonio Vilar) on June 12 about the President's electoral expenses. The poll official was explaining to Tony media reports quoting him as saying that Ms. Arroyo had spent P330 million in the last poll. In the conversation, the two agreed that Arroyo should file a separate sworn statement of expenditures and contributions to avoid legal problems later.

A check with the Comelec legal department showed that Arroyo and her party coalition party, K-4, filed its statement of expenditures and contributions on June 9. It was filed by Vilar, treasurer of K-4. But on June 18, or six days after the alleged call took place, Vilar, on behalf of the President, filed an updated statement of expenditure and contributions amounting to P152.613 million.

Vilar refused to confirm or deny if he was the Tony whom Garcillano had spoken with. "I have no comment. That's all I can say," he told NEWSBREAK.

Familiar Voices

Comelec employees and officials have told NEWSBREAK that the voices of the other people that Garcillano purportedly spoke with were familiar to them.

A certain "Danny" who called Garcillano on May 25 was identified by Comelec sources as lawyer Francisco Pobe, the provincial election supervisor of Agusan del Sur. "Danny" would call Garcillano again on May 26 asking for results in Cotabato City. Comelec sources say Pobe was acting on behalf of a candidate.

"Macarambon," who was mentioned by Garcillano in the May 25 conversation as the one who was supposed to ensure Barbers's victory in the remaining Lanao del Sur election results, could be Renault "Boy" Macarambon, a Comelec lawyer originally detailed with the executive director for operations but was taken in by Garcillano, according to the same employees. (Macarambon was vice-chair of the Lanao del Sur board of canvassers in the last election.)

"Len," whom Garcillano called on May 26, could be his secretary, Ellen Peralta. In that conversation, he told "Len" to remind someone to bring "SOV 15 to 18 sheets from Cotabato."

Peralta's name surfaced in Garcillano's conversation with an unidentified man believed to be Mr. Arroyo, who promised to deliver P1.5 million to the poll official's office. Garcillano said it would be Peralta who would receive the money.

Long-time Comelec employees also identified the man who addressed Garcillano as "Brod" in a recorded conversation on May 29 as belonging to Reynaldo Pescadera, the election supervisor in Sulu. In that supposed conversation, Pescadera told Garcillano that a certain Sammy was the one involved in the operation in Pangutaran, Sulu. The opposition would later claim that Poe was cheated in that town.

Comelec employees also recognized the voice of lawyer Henry Magbutay, election director of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, as the "Boy" who informed Garcillano that Hali could be hiding in Manila.

In the recorded conversation, the caller suggested that Hali's family be kidnapped, but Garcillano rejected the idea.

Another recognizable voice was that of lawyer Wynne Asdala, now assigned to the Comelec's legal department. He was the election supervisor in Maguindanao during the elections. Asdala reportedly phoned Garcillano on June 6 for updates on the canvass in Cotabato, informing him of a belated attempt to pad Barber's votes in Talitay and Columbio. On June 8, Asdala allegedly called Garcillano again to say that a new group was pestering him to help Barbers in Talitay. Garcillano said the effort was "useless."

Asdala denied to NEWSBREAK that he was the one on the tape. He said he had not heard the tape but had only read its transcript. "Di naman ako si (I'm not) Atty. Estrella," he said. In the published transcript, Asdala was identified as "Atty. Estrella."

Several Comelec employees say that shortly after the elections, Asdala could not be located for almost two weeks amid suspicion that he was wanted by certain parties. He later surfaced in the Comelec, without explaining his absence.

Another Comelec lawyer, Rey Sumalipao, was said to have been mentioned by Garcillano in his June 8 alleged conversation with the President, during which she expressed concerned over an exposé by an official of the National Citizens' Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) in Lanao del Sur.

Garcillano was said to have assured the President that Sumalipao would be able to rebut the Namfrel official's allegations. "We will try to make him say something. I will tell him to talk without letting the people know that I am the one who will address it," Garcillano said. Sumalipao was chair of the provincial board of canvassers in Lanao del Sur in the last election.

Another Comelec official who figured in the tape was Cipriano Ebron (whose surname was misspelled "Libron" in the published transcript), the election officer of Pangutaran, Sulu. Ebron was first referred to by Garcillano in a supposed June 2 conversation where President Arroyo expressed concerned over reports that the SOVs and the COCs in Lanao del Sur and Sulu did not match. "Patataguin ko na lang EO ng Pangutaran para hindi sila makapagtestigo ho (I'll just ask the EO of Pangutaran to go into hiding, so he can't testify)," Garcillano reportedly told the President.

Ebron's name again cropped up in Garcillano's conversation with a certain Ruben on June 7. "Ruben" told Garcillano that Ebron might be presented by the opposition to testify on cheating in Pangutaran, along with Hali.

But Garcillano was unperturbed. "Di nila makukuha si Ebron... wala na... di nila makukuha (They can't get Ebron... he's gone...)" Garcillano also told Ruben that Ebron had been slapped by a soldier, "kaya kahit pakainin mo ng bala 'yun, di na magpapakita (he won't appear, even under the gravest threats)." Two Comelec officials told NEWSBREAK that they indeed received reports that Ebron had been hurt by military personnel, and that one of them even poked a gun at him.

A Mindanao Veteran

Garcillano has established personal friendships with these poll operators during the first time that he was assigned in Comelec.

Garcillano's first Comelec assignment in 1961 was in Sulu. He was a special attorney there before becoming provincial election supervisor in Lanao del Norte and Lanao del Sur in the 1970s. He also became regional director in Western Mindanao and Northern Mindanao before he left the Comelec in 1986, after the Edsa 1 people power revolt.

When he returned to Comelec in 1994, he served as the regional director for Central Mindanao and Northern Mindanao before becoming commissioner.

In between, he also held several assignments in various places in Mindanao, notably in the provinces belonging to the ARMM.

The President trounced Poe in the ARMM provinces by a total of 251,515 votes.

In Basilan, where Wilfredo Daraug and Borromeo Patangan—known Garcillano's protégés—were the provincial election supervisor and chair of the provincial board of canvassers, respectively, in last year's elections, Arroyo got 79,702 votes against Poe's 48,685.

In the Sumalipao-chaired Lanao del Sur board of canvassers, Arroyo got 128,301 votes versus Poe's measly 43,302.

In the Asdala-chaired Maguindanao, Arroyo got 193,938 votes versus Poe's 59,892.

In Tawi-tawi, the election supervisor was another Garcillano protégé, Michael "Mike" Abbas. Poe won in that province, but only slightly (49,803 against Arroyo's 33,634).

In Sulu, while Arroyo won 78,429 against Poe's 60,807 votes, two Comelec officials say the slim margin of victory could be credited to Joselyn de Mesa who refused to participate in the cheating there.

Accounts reaching Comelec, reinforced by the recorded conversations, show that the military there tried to force De Mesa to tamper with the provincial canvass results. In his May 29 conversation with the President, Garcillano faulted a certain Gen. Habacon for reports that some election officers were threatening to expose cheating in Sulu. "Kasi sila Gen. Habacon ba, hindi masyadong marunong pa dyan, medyo sila ang umano nun (It's because Gen. Habacon and his men are new at this, so they must have done something there)." Garcillano must have been referring to Maj. Gen. Gabriel Habacon, commanding general of the Army's 1st Infantry Division, which covers Basilan, Sulu, and the Zamboanga peninsula.

Now, if only all these people could talk—not on tape, but in person.

 

Arangkada for July 5, 2005

 

SABIT NI BIBIT

 

Nikalit lang og kalami si Billy Bibit. Ang kanhi kolektor sa Bureau of Customs sa Sugbo nideklarar nga di katugotan sa kasundalohan nga magpabilin sa katungdanan si Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo atubangan sa klarong mga ebidensiya sa pagmaniobra sa resulta sa eleksiyon sa niaging tuig. Atol sa interview sa DYAB Abante Bisaya, niingon si Bibit nga supak sa mga prinsipyo nga ilang naumol sa Philippine Military Academy (PMA) ang pagpamakak, pagpanikas ug pagbudhi sa pagsalig sa katawhan.

Atubangan sa kontrobersiyal niyang rekord isip district collector sa Sugbo, usa ka tigpaminaw sa "Arangkada," si Eric Labrada, nisugyot nga di untang kabuylo si Bibit sa iyang pagkusukuso sa administrasyong Arroyo kon gidiretso pa nako siyag pangutana og "All Right, Sir?" (Matod sa mga PMAers way tarung nga sundawo nga mosanong sa pangutana kon nakalapas sila sa mga lagda.) Kon ingon ini pa lang unta kayano ug ka-istrikto ang pagtuman sa mga lagda sa PMAers, wa unta molampos ang bisan unsang panagkonsabo nilang Presidente Arroyo ug kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano.

-o0o-

Kon wa pa taktaka si Bibit sa gikawilihan kaayo niyang puwesto, kay giisip man sa taga-customs ang Sugbo nga usa sa labing abundang minahan sa ilang pagtumpi og katigayonan, kon wa pa istriktoha ug ipangiha sa nipuli niyang si Atty. Lourdes Mangaoang ang nahibilin niyang mga sakop, makaako kaha si Bibit sa pagpangugat nga angayng palagputon na sa Malakanyang si Presidente Arroyo?

Gibisto ni Bibit nga dunay laing grupo sa kasundalohan, nga buwag sa mga grupo nilang Heneral Fortunato Abat ug sa mga loyalista nilang kanhi presidente Joseph Estrada ug anhing Fernando Poe Jr., nga nagplano sa pagtukod og military junta nga di maglakip sa mga politiko. Matod ni Bibit ang nakaingon sa kapakyas sa Edsa 1 ug 2 mao ang ilang pagtunol sa gahom ngadto sa mga politiko.

Ambot kon hain kapusta si Bibit, pero ang iyang deklarasyon nakapasamot sa kahadlok sa katawhan sa mahitabo sa nasud kon matangtang si Arroyo sa Palasyo.

-o0o-

Ang gipanghambog sa Malakanyang nga hingpit nga suporta sa gabinete parang Presidente Arroyo napukling human nabisto ang pagkabuak sa opisyal nga pamilya ni Presidente Arroyo. Si Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita ug National Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz gikatahong nagpalabwanay sa ilang influencia sa presidente. Nga sayon kaayong nadaog ni Cruz.

Timailhan ini maong pagtuman sa presidente sa tambag ni Cruz pagtingog na labot sa audio recording, pag-exile ni First Gentleman Mike Arroyo ug pagtudlo og bag-ong chief of staff, si Tomas Alcantara, nga gihulagway nga mas sikit sa presidente kay ni Ermita. Si Ermita mismo giingong gidudahan na tungod sa iyang kasuod ni kanhi presidente Fidel Ramos, kansang mga alyado nga gipangulohan ni Abat, maoy nagsigeg sungag sa administrasyon. [30]   leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com

Pichay Defense

Posted by Luz Rimban 
PCIJ

THE Malacañang PR machines went on the offensive today, and it could indicate a change in the Palace approach to the "Hello, Garci" issue. For one, major dailies ran huge photos of a busy President Gloria Arroyo at work in her office, courtesy, of course, of the Malacañang press office. The Philippine Daily Inquirer had a picture of her hunched over a desk full of papers, while the Star had her typing away on her laptop. Talk of changing the presidential image.

And then there was Congressman Prospero Pichay on Studio 23's Y Speak, where the topic was the President's apology to the nation last June 27, whether it should be  accepted, and what was to be done about it.  

Pichay was the pro-GMA warrior, saying "Elections are like a basketball game. The Comelec officials are the referees." And using this metaphor, he says that like in any basketball game, there's nothing wrong with candidates talking to the Comelec.   "All candidates have talked to a Comelec official. If that is a crime, then all political candidates who won should resign."

When Pichay was asked if he, too, called the Comelec during the 2004 elections, his answer was: "I admit it. All of us including the losing candidates because we considered the Comelec as referees. They won't judge us anyway. It's the people who will."

Pichay also defended President Gloria Arroyo's three-week silence, saying " Silence doesn't mean she's lying."

At any rate, Pichay says the impeachment process already began with the endorsement of the impeachment complaint filed by Atty. Oliver Lozano.

But with influential congressmen like Pichay there to help make up the minds of other congressmen, the public can almost say the outcome of the impeachment process in the House will be a forgone conclusion, especially with a statement like this:  "The President is actually the victim of wiretapping here."  At that point, Y Speak host Ryan Agoncillo cut him off, and he didn't get the chance to expound.

Arangkada for July 4, 2005

 

                HADLOK NI ONG

 

Kon nagpaabot kang mauwaw ug boluntaryong mo-resign si Presidente Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo human nabisto nga nakigkonsabo siyang kanhi Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano sa pagamit sa kapolisan, militar ug kinatibuk-ang makinarya sa gobyerno aron pagtikas sa resulta sa eleksiyon sa Mayo sa niaging tuig, basaha ni ug hilak.

Madutlan pa bag uwaw ang usa ka politiko nga way kukaikog nga nimaniobra sa iskutenyo sa balaanong mga boto sa katawhan aron lang magpabilin siya sa gahom? May luna pa ba sa bisan gamay na lang kaikog ang itom nga kasingkasing sa usa ka politiko nga wa managana pagtampok sa bukubuko sa katawhan ug pagkawat sa ilang mandato?

-o0o-

Maong makapaabot ta og dugang mga maniobra nga pasiugdahan ni Presidente Arroyo sa mosunod nga mga adlaw aron pagseguro nga makatiwas siya sa iyang termino. Sama sa iyang pagsakripisyo ni kanhi senador Robert Barbers, kanhi kongresista Celestino Martinez Jr. ug ubang mga lider niya sa politika aron lang nga di malilian ang pagpaburot sa iyang mga boto sa niaging eleksiyon, di na ta makugang kon isakripisyo ang uban pa niyang mga alyado ug bisan ang iyang bana aron lang di siya mapalagpot.

Mahimong mahinayon na gyod karong semanaha ang wa mahitabo suma sa gipaabot sa niaging semana nga lapad nga lahugay sa gabinete ug mga korporasyon sa gobyerno nga gikontrolar sa nangalisbo nga mga batabata ni First Gentleman Mike Arroyo. Pero ang labing dakong problema sa presidente, labaw kay sa posibleng pagbisto sa iyang mga panaktakon sa dugang mga anomaliya sa iyang administrasyon, mao ang pagkumbinser sa lab-as, ligdong ug takos nga mga talento pag-alagad sa nagkabulingit na niyang pamunoan.

-o0o-

Karong semanaha, gipaabot nga moatubang na gyod sa mga kongresista si kanhi NBI deputy director Samuel Ong ug, labaw sa tanan, mapabati na gyod sa tibuok nasud ang sud sa iyang gitawag nga "mother of all tapes." Mas makadaot gyod tingali sa administrasyon ang sud sa recording nga iyang gihuptan. Kay kon sama ra sa tulo ka oras nga recording nga nahuptan ni Atty. Allan Paguia, nganong gigukod man pag-ayo sa gobyerno si Ong samtang gipasagdan lang si Paguia nga makaatubang sa mga kongresista?

Mga tilimad-on nga mas hadlok ang Malakanyang sa ebidensiyang gihuptan ni Ong:

• Gipadad-an siyag gatosan ka polis ug mga sundawo ug duha ka armoured personnel carriers ang iyang gidangpan nga San Carlos Seminary;
• Gipasanginlang nidagit ni T/Sgt. Vidal Doble sa ISAFP kinsa, usa ka semana human gisukwahi ni Presidente Arroyo ang baleg tulo ka semana nilang cover-up, padayon pa nilang gitanggong ug gitago gikan sa media;
• Di mopasalig sa iyang seguridad ang House of Representatives gikan sa iyang safehouse paingon sa Batasang Pambansa complex; ug
• Wa pa gani siyang kapabati sa iyang tape, gipasakaan na siya ni Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez sa iyang paboritong hudlat ug kaso, "inciting to sedition." [30]   leo_lastimosa@abs-cbn.com

People Power No More?

The Gloriagate Scandal and the Impulses of Our Political Classes
Melay V. Abao
Deputy Director
Institute for Popular Democracy


I am convinced that the taped conversations between GMA and Commissioner Garcillano actually took place. I have read the transcripts and listened to the tapes several times. Only GMA has that unique, annoying, irritating voice. Moreover, GMA's silence (read: dedma) has strengthened my conviction. It is obvious that she is "neutralizing" the situation and evidently, she – starting with the Bunye press conference -- is simply muddling through. Because of this I have joined the RIO (resign-impeach-oust)-GMA fray but I always tell myself: this time, it should be more than just replacing a president.

In other words, I no longer bother with the question "did she or didn't she"? (As I said, I am convinced that she did.) In my opinion, the more important question now is this: How could we have allowed something so horrendous as election rigging at the highest level to happen in our country? I have, infact, been very aghast at the pronouncement of prominent Edsa 1 and 2 personalities such as former COMELEC Commissioner Christian Monsod and Fr. Joaquin Bernas, S.J that the conversation between GMA and Garcillano may be improper but not necessarily illegal – as if impropriety of this kind (i.e meddling with people's "consent") were a lesser crime than violating a wire-tapping law!

Why, indeed, do political "improprieties" such as the Gloriagate scandal continue to happen? The answer lies not only in GMA who has turned out to be so bad at being a trapo ( i.e all other trapos cheat during elections but only GMA has been reckless enough to get caught). We also need to look into the different political classes in our society, their impulses and interaction to understand why it is possible for a presidential candidate and a COMELEC commissioner to "fix" elections even after two decades of formal democracy and three people power exercises.

For political activists, analysing the gloriagate scandal with some structural/class perspective sheds light on what lies underneath and beyond the RIO calls. It is important to situate this political moment in the various "impulses" of different political classes in our society -- the various sections that affect our politics -- so we do not blind ourselves to all the possibilities and limits of anti-GMA calls.

The impulses of the different classes in our society have been most visible during major political moments such as Edsa 1, 2, 3 and during elections. Although current apathy especially among the middle class can be explained by people's desperation over the lack of change despite the 3 Edsas, we need to recognize that these exercises revealed what Prof. Randy David calls "revolutionary impulses". As political activists, we have to be observant and critical of the impulses that have found expression in the past and those that continue to exist among various sections. We need to always ask what and who is "out there".

Right now, in the initial stages of the Gloriagate scandal it is the dominant political class, with their wheeling-and-dealing-impulse, that is at work. The "critical mass" is still not visible and might, infact, be difficult to mobilize simply because their current impulse is to "leave" (literally) rather than to "raise voice". Nevertheless, the fact remains that the support of this critical mass will be crucial to end the current "stalemate" (to borrow Joel Rocamora's term) between the ruling elite, the elite opposition and the Left opposition. This critical mass -- defined here as "the show of force and unity of politically active citizens" -- can tip the balance of forces. If this critical mass does not step in ( i.e stay instead of leave), only the coup d'etat and back-to-martial-law-rule options will be available.

The more important 'structural' problem, I think, is this: our country's critical mass tend to disappear in-between elections and in-between people power episodes. What we now have is a crisis of our representative institutions aggravated by the absence of incentives and channels for direct political participation especially of the middle class. The Gloriagate scandal is yet another reminder of how much we have left our politics in the hands of the political elite. Ousting Gloria without changing this political elite is not going to produce lasting changes in our political system.

Socio-Economic Classification of the Politically Active

"Political classes" cannot be determined without considering the socio-economic standing of those who are politically active. This article is not an attempt at classifying class in strict Marxist terms, rather, at categorizing sections of society for purposes of analysing their political impulses. The "class analysis" presented here is derived from classifications of survey firms because these were the nearest I could get to some "scientific" categorization of political classes.

Survey firms such as SWS and Pulse Asia often classify Filipinos into five (5) socio-economic classes -- A, B, C, D, E -- using seven (7) variables: durability of the house, maintenance of the house, neighborhood, education of the household head, occupation of the household head, facilities found in the house and income of the household. (Note: features described below are those of the survey firms).

Class A are the richest with household income of over 100,000 PhP monthly. They live in permanent homes built with high quality materials that are located in exclusive neighborhoods. They are graduates of expensive colleges and occupy top positions in moderate to big businesses. They have more than 10 facilities (or appliances) and have new cars (not more than 5 years old).

Class B are similar to Class A in almost all features but their household income range from 50,000-100,000 PhP monthly.

Class C have household income between 15,000 – 50,000 PhP monthly. Unlike Class A and B, they live in semi-permanent homes (with good quality materials) in mixed neighborhoods of large and small houses. Household heads are graduates of state colleges or have attained some college education. They are often junior executives, young professionals or middle level supervisors. Their homes have 5-10 facilities and they own, at most, one vehicle.

Class D live in poorly constructed, semi-permanent homes which are generally unpainted and badly in need of repair. Household heads are high school graduates or have attained some highschool education. They are lowly paid, white collar workers or skilled workers, lowland farmers, tenants, foremen, unskilled overseas workers or may have a small business. Their homes have 2-4 facilities. They earn 8,000 – 15,000 PhP monthly.

Class E are the poorest. They live in temporary structures which are unpainted and dilapidated; their homes are located in slum districts. Household heads are often elementary graduates (or have not graduated at all). They are the farmhands, unskilled workers, vendors, non-permanent workers, non-regular wage earners and often engage in odd jobs such as plumbing, repairs, masonry. Their homes have none or only 1 facility. Their household income is below 8,000 PhP.

Although the survey firms do not use "upper-middle-lower class" classifications, for the purposes of this article, the following class categories will be used: Class A and B are the "upper class", Class C are the "middle class", Class Dare the "working poor", and Class E are the "poorest of the poor".

Based on the foregoing socio-economic categorization and an extrapolation of the SWS 2004 exit poll (I asked IPD statistician Nikken Beronilla to do some calculating), this much can be gathered: Class A and B, the "upper class"comprise 1.7% of voters, Class C comprise 6.3%, Class D comprise 63.2%, and, Class E comprise 28.8%.

In the SWS 2004 exit poll, class D is further divided into 3 sub-classes with class D1 "owning housing lots" and this section comprises 38.9% of voters. Thus, with this section combined with Class C, the "middle class" comprise 45.2% of voters(6.3%+38.9%). Class D, the "working poor"comprise 24.3% of voters and Class E, the "poorest of the poor" comprise 28.8% of voters.

The SWS 2004 exit poll and its correlation with the socio-economic classification is a useful indicator of "political classes" because it is safe to assume that (actual) "voters" are those who are "politically active".

The Dominant Political Class: Wheeling and Dealing

In any major political moment - as in the Gloriagate scandal and the 2001 Erap jueteng scandal -- the political elite is always the most visible political class. These scandals, after all, are often embedded in the interaction of warring factions of the elite, in their "wheeling and dealing". To seize power, factions must dig up "dirt" and he/she who throws the most dirt ends up the winner.

The political elite is not always the source of dirt that may eventually lead to the ouster of Philippine presidents. In 2001, it was PCIJ, a group of formidable journalists who first exposed Erap's unexplained wealth. The political elite immediately upstaged these journalists, however, because they (the elite) were able to shape public opinion by virtue of their ownership of media outlets, especially broadcast media. In the Gloriagate scandal, it is interesting to note that the major television networks are seemingly taking the "wait and see" position – very much like the Makati Business Club position. Their reluctance to air the gloria-garcillano tapes may be about protecting business interests rather than complying with the legal rules (against using wire-tapped tapes). These media giants know that they have replaced political parties in informing citizens about political developments. They too have become part of the political elite and therefore want to be sure that they align with winners in the political game.

Analysing media giants is important because these institutions have direct access to the middle and lower classes, to the potential critical mass. While they need to be transformed as well, media institutions can be valuable sources of lessons in mobilizing people. The Erap ouster, for instance, could not have been possible without the TV coverage of the impeachment process, of that "open-the-envelope" moment. Political movements, especially the progressive movement, have much to learn from mainstream media especially in presenting political messages to the general public.

The other section of the political elite is big business. It is not difficult to see why this is so: Philippine politics is essentially about money politics. Business people actively involve themselves in partisan politics because they care about how their money is spent, i.e that it is spent on politicians and political activities that will ensure even greater profits for their business ventures.

The Church is another matter altogether. Although there is a state-church divide, the Philippine Church, especially the Catholic Church hierarchy, is very influential in using religious values as mobilizing factors. The Church may not be part of the political elite in the strict, technical sense but it is certainly in the midst of political wheeling and dealing. We see this in the silence of some Catholic Church leaders, in El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde who has already held GMA's hand, and, in Jesus-is-Lord and Inglesia ni Kristo leaders who seem to be straddling still between the ruling elite and the elite opposition.

Finally, there is that mainstream pool of traditional politicians and political parties whose fragmentation is highly obvious in the Gloriagate scandal. With the impending investigation of the controversial tapes in Congress, the elite opposition now present themselves as stalwarts of honest governance. It doesn't matter that these holier-than-thou Kongresistas have not passed a single piece of major legislation pertinent to electoral reform and that it is that very same, unchanged electoral system that has allowed a Gloriagate to happen.

It doesn't seem to matter either that Congressman Gilbert Remulla (head of the Congress investigation) comes from the Nationalista Party whose leaders and allies include Senator Villar whose sights are set on the Presidency and Vice-President Noli de Castro who, as Vice-President, and for now, can't say that he wants the Presidency (even trapos want to appear decent).

Moreover, this political elite works closely with (or sometimes overlaps with) the "underworld" of this country. At this time of crisis when the "Erap" option is again surfacing, we need to remember that Erap's ouster was also about stopping crooks and gambling lords – the gangsters – from having a direct hand in governing our country.

This political elite – both the ruling elite and the elite opposition – are all biding for time. Those from within GMA's camp (e.g the Liberal Party) are now pressuring her to at least say something (anything) because such pronouncement is important for them to calculate their next moves. The opposition, meanwhile, is not likely to unify all of a sudden despite their common aspiration to unseat GMA. They too are "waiting" (especially Senator Ping Lacson).

The political elite is again dominant in this unfolding political game. They are only 1.7% of the voters but they are strongest of us all. In purely economic terms, this "upper class" comprise roughly 12% of the entire population. They are the minority but that is why they are elite -- they are the very few people who can buy votes, politicians, political decisions and electoral machines. They are not the "forces of modernity" that some analysts say are much needed now, rather, they are the "forces of continuity" -- the continuity of feudal-like relations in our political system.

The Critical Mass: Exit vs.Voice

I agree with Joel Rocamora that there is now a stalemate. Both the ruling elite and the elite opposition are weak because they have no regular political bases to begin with. They have paid supporters every election and every mobilization but they do not have that faithful following. This explains why many a Philippine President (especially former President Ramos) rely heavily on the military as a political base and on shifting social-political bases.

For one section of the political elite to be hegemonic in major political moments, support of a "critical mass" is the defining element. All of the EDSAs have proven this. This is not to say that those who joined the EDSAs are blind supporters, rather, that their sensibilities ( i.e anti-dictatorship, anti-corruption, anti-dishonesty) have been utilized by the political elite for vested interests.

For the political elite, thus, the most important question is "who" will actually force GMA to go and "who" will fight for her to stay. The elite's schism is underpinned by their conflicting reading of this potential support base and strategies to gain such support. Evidently, it is this same reading of the "who" that divides the Left. Those calling for immediate revolutionary change believe there is a revolutionary situation and that the "who" (those for GMA's removal)only need to be nudged. Others are less deterministic, preferring to engage in the political landscape with nary an assumption or a conclusion that the revolutionary situation is "it" and that revolutionary change is "now". Finally, there are those in the Left who are too cautious about rocking the boat even further (for good reason -- some are them are still in the boat!).

I think I belong to the "less deterministic but want to rock the boat" bunch. I am all for revolutionary change but I do not believe a revolutionary situation exists and that radical change will happen even with GMA out of the picture. This position is based on a reading of the critical mass which remains a mere "potential" several weeks into the tape expose.

The SWS figures shown above point to the reality that this potential critical mass can come from roughly 98% of the voting population (or 88% of the population, in socio-economic terms): classes C, D, and E – the middle class, the working poor and the poorest of the poor. In Edsa 1 and 2, the middle class and the working poor were the most prominent. In Edsa 3, the working poor and the poorest took center stage.

In my opinion, an Edsa 4 is not likely to happen – especially not right now -- because the middle and lower classes are preoccupied with fending for themselves.

The middle class, in particular, is an interesting case in point. My sense is that this class wants to leave rather than raise voice. They have no incentives to stay and actively participate in our politics. Many, infact, have already left. Around 7.5 - 8.5 million Filipinos are now working in 197 countries. Everyday, an estimated 2,500 Filipinos leave the country to find work abroad (for more details, please see the website of the Center for Migrant Advocacy-Philippines). This means that since the May 2004 elections, more than 900,000 Filipinos who are likely to have been politically active are no longer around.

My answer thus to Randy David's question (in Public Conversations, PDI, June 19, 2005) as to "why the public is not reacting with outrage to the scandal of the Garci tapes" is simply that this public may not even be around anymore. Those still around also want to leave.

It is because of this reading of the middle class that I am skeptical of the Left's belief that a revolutionary situation does or can exist because of the Gloriagate scandal. I have, infact, serious problems with the political attitude of some Left groups toward the middle class: that this class is needed but only the masses (working class) are "revolutionary"; that it is "elitist" to consider the middle class as a potent force for revolutionary change.

I share the opinion of those who believe that the middle class are the forces of modernity. The initial impulse of this class, infact, has been to turn to modern technology -- text jokes, internet exchanges -- to express disgust, disbelief and disrespect for GMA, the politicians, the Left, and, their ongoing political intramurals. Without this class in the political landscape, without incentives and regular channels for their direct participation, this Gloriagate scandal -- with or without the eventual removal of GMA -- will simply be another political moment that too, will pass away.

Communist or socialist calls are not likely to be the cutting edge in the unfolding landscape. If the middle and lower classes are to matter significantly, the call now should be more basic: Stay. Don't leave the country. Don't leave our politics to politicians.